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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
raregods · 7 games
14%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 40 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 29 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 28 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 26 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 610 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
557 picks · 218 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
530 picks · 706 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 320 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
477 picks · 238 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 545 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 583 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
403 picks · 588 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:42
VP.Prodigy 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingcutie
49% · 186 games52% · 194 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinySerenada
52% · 376 games53% · 107 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Axe
AxeInfernal
48% · 220 games51% · 167 games
Void SpiritCopy
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
51% · 462 games51% · 393 games
Ringmasteraik
Ringmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageraregods
48% · 85 games47% · 468 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed38:26
VP.Prodigy 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursacutie
50% · 273 games55% · 164 games
Primal BeastCopy
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSerenada
52% · 119 games47% · 284 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeInfernal
43% · 198 games54% · 44 games
ViperPalantimos
Viper
Chen
ChenJANTER
51% · 205 games50% · 280 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Windranger
Windrangerraregods
51% · 239 games49% · 262 games
Ringmasteraik
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed37:8
VP.Prodigy 33%Pipsqueak+4 67%
The model gave 67% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSerenada
47% · 114 games52% · 323 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
Abaddoncutie
49% · 209 games54% · 89 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Axe
AxeInfernal
42% · 160 games50% · 119 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
44% · 197 games60% · 70 games
Keeper of the LightEkki
Keeper of the Light
Windranger
Windrangerraregods
49% · 193 games55% · 272 games
Ringmasteraik
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 77%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3