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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axe
takizawa · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 8 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Windranger
Windranger
raregods · 8 games
50%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 51 game
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 44 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 38 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 27 games
81%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 26 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 25 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 754 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 342 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 544 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
371 picks · 654 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 556 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 463 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 149 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:28
VP.Prodigy 33%Rune Eaters 67%
The model gave 67% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 59:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendcutie
50% · 104 games50% · 140 games
Medusayowaai
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierRain
47% · 279 games55% · 68 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
47% · 172 games52% · 347 games
TinyAnkou
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageraregods
38% · 51 game62% · 96 games
Keeper of the Lightani-san
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
47% · 193 games51% · 148 games
Undyingmonodrama
Undying
Game 2prediction missed41:16
VP.Prodigy 36%Rune Eaters 64%
The model gave 64% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendcutie
51% · 155 games50% · 143 games
Phantom Assassinyowaai
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRain
57% · 526 games45% · 321 game
Dragon KnightEthereal
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
Bristlebacktakizawa
52% · 423 games47% · 263 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageraregods
47% · 141 game47% · 459 games
Tinyani-san
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
56% · 361 game47% · 420 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct14:29
VP.Prodigy 35%Rune Eaters 65%
The model gave 65% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingcutie
48% · 164 games59% · 66 games
Juggernautyowaai
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRain
47% · 304 games48% · 245 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
48% · 151 game50% · 157 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
48% · 85 games46% · 88 games
Dazzlemonodrama
Dazzle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionJANTER
56% · 123 games53% · 271 game
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 77%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3