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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 11 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 10 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
raregods · 10 games
40%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 55 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 48 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 44 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 34 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
52%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
589 picks · 927 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 415 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 654 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 637 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 938 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 644 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 528 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
373 picks · 231 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:34
VP.Prodigy 37%Rune Eaters 63%
The model gave 63% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svencutie
49% · 175 games50% · 283 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperKatsura
56% · 84 games44% · 129 games
UnderlordAnkou
Underlord
Razor
Razortakizawa
58% · 65 games49% · 389 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Tiny
Tinyraregods
53% · 487 games45% · 344 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
51% · 334 games
Game 2prediction missed43:22
VP.Prodigy 37%Rune Eaters 63%
The model gave 63% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerKatsura
56% · 77 games47% · 126 games
Phantom Assassinyowaai
Phantom Assassin
Luna
Lunacutie
43% · 36 games50% · 155 games
TidehunterAnkou
Tidehunter
Razor
Razortakizawa
57% · 39 games51% · 150 games
Ancient Apparitionmonodrama
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
54% · 212 games46% · 332 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Tiny
Tinyraregods
49% · 399 games
Game 3prediction missed27:19
VP.Prodigy 37%Rune Eaters 63%
The model gave 63% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmastertakizawa
57% · 296 games45% · 294 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
58% · 63 games42% · 184 games
KunkkaAnkou
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingKatsura
44% · 161 game54% · 175 games
Shadow Demonani-san
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinraregods
55% · 37 games48% · 121 game
Clockwerkmonodrama
Clockwerk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
51% · 217 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 75%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3