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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 20 games
40%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 18 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 14 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 13 games
85%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
58%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 38 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
52%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
583 picks · 816 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 545 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 390 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 292 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 652 bans
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
385 picks · 1010 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 578 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
346 picks · 514 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
VP.Prodigy 39%Rune Eaters 61%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawtakizawa
51% · 175 games43% · 71 game
Lunayowaai
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSerenada
47% · 274 games47% · 204 games
KunkkaEthereal
Kunkka
Windranger
Windrangercutie
49% · 198 games48% · 141 game
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinraregods
47% · 54 games48% · 494 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockJANTER
52% · 290 games66% · 81 game
Treant ProtectorKidaro
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct21:31
VP.Prodigy 40%Rune Eaters 60%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunacutie
50% · 50 games52% · 318 games
Beastmasteryowaai
Beastmaster
Razor
Razortakizawa
49% · 124 games54% · 95 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSerenada
46% · 377 games57% · 343 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
Tinyraregods
48% · 460 games45% · 41 game
Spirit Breakerani-san
Spirit Breaker
Phoenix
PhoenixJANTER
44% · 205 games52% · 419 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 69%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2