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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
cutie · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
egx · 3 games
0%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 33 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 30 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 29 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 24 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 23 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
768 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 550 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
528 picks · 390 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
512 picks · 620 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 287 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 738 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 508 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
VP.Prodigy 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursacutie
55% · 221 game49% · 305 games
Gyrocopterbottega
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSerenada
51% · 318 games46% · 240 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Axe
Axetakizawa
51% · 150 games53% · 291 game
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
46% · 225 games51% · 222 games
Shadow DemonHtrd
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
48% · 165 games48% · 21 game
Techiesprblms
Techies
Game 2prediction missed31:29
VP.Prodigy 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 55:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSerenada
48% · 316 games57% · 360 games
PangolierMirele
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
48% · 355 games50% · 339 games
Dragon Knightbottega
Dragon Knight
Alchemist
Alchemistcutie
46% · 72 games49% · 125 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
50% · 339 games39% · 170 games
SilencerHtrd
Silencer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJANTER
57% · 279 games55% · 367 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct16:32
VP.Prodigy 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddoncutie
52% · 407 games50% · 368 games
Gyrocopterbottega
Gyrocopter
Axe
Axetakizawa
53% · 225 games50% · 394 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSerenada
52% · 486 games46% · 496 games
PangolierInfernal
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderraregods
50% · 445 games47% · 442 games
JakiroHtrd
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
47% · 367 games53% · 230 games
Ringmasterprblms
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 82%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3