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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 1:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axe
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Windranger
Windranger
raregods · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 28 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 26 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 26 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 25 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 24 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
562 picks · 644 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
503 picks · 327 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 682 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
453 picks · 166 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 528 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
428 picks · 203 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 525 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 497 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:19
VP.Prodigy 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
49% · 115 games43% · 162 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSerenada
48% · 9 games48% · 56 games
Slarkbottega
Slark
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
53% · 68 games51% · 124 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Tusk
TuskJANTER
45% · 306 games68% · 66 games
Keeper of the Lightprblms
Keeper of the Light
50% · 90 games
BaneHtrd
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 63%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1