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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 18 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 14 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 13 games
46%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 33 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 21 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sayuw · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
640 picks · 814 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 580 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 398 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
453 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1049 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 680 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 606 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
366 picks · 970 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:42
VP.Prodigy 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
51% · 150 games48% · 112 games
InvokerRain
Invoker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSerenada
49% · 207 games44% · 97 games
KezShigetsu
Kez
Muerta
Muertacutie
49% · 161 game50% · 179 games
PhoenixBatyuk
Phoenix
Batrider
Batriderraregods
52% · 177 games53% · 254 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJANTER
42% · 35 games59% · 88 games
Treant Protectornot me
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct14:26
VP.Prodigy 43%Yellow Submarine 57%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 22:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomtakizawa
55% · 185 games52% · 335 games
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Shadow Fiend
Kez
Kezcutie
45% · 95 games51% · 345 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Puck
PuckSerenada
48% · 382 games54% · 106 games
HuskarRain
Huskar
Warlock
WarlockJANTER
50% · 374 games50% · 487 games
Shadow Shamannot me
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
Tinyraregods
45% · 416 games51% · 179 games
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 61%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2