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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 25 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 23 games
48%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Katsura · 17 games
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 16 games
19%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 15 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 35 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 33 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 29 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 26 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
610 picks · 386 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
507 picks · 279 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 576 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 387 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
416 picks · 581 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 951 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 279 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 493 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total81% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:18
VP.Prodigy 31%Zero Tenacity 69%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinycutie
43% · 294 games53% · 56 games
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSerenada
44% · 49 games47% · 245 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeMiyaoo
43% · 187 games57% · 306 games
BatriderMikSa`
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterJANTER
46% · 174 games54% · 37 games
MiranadEsire
Mirana
Clockwerk
Clockwerkraregods
50% · 145 games62% · 205 games
BaneMoOz
Bane
Game 2prediction correct19:27
VP.Prodigy 32%Zero Tenacity 68%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangercutie
50% · 330 games49% · 276 games
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSerenada
48% · 482 games55% · 134 games
LargoMikSa`
Largo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMiyaoo
47% · 191 game49% · 425 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Lion
Lionraregods
52% · 169 games44% · 114 games
TechiesdEsire
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorJANTER
60% · 184 games45% · 407 games
TuskMoOz
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct11:36
VP.Prodigy 31%Zero Tenacity 69%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezcutie
49% · 184 games55% · 180 games
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSerenada
51% · 161 game49% · 167 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMiyaoo
47% · 201 game50% · 152 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
52% · 279 games53% · 307 games
TuskMoOz
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJANTER
52% · 52 games44% · 71 game
TechiesdEsire
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 81%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3