PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWwcydloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DMSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
wcyd
No games played over 6 months.
DMS
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 315 bans
Hoodwink
417 picks · 440 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 885 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 514 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% wcyd
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:6
wcyd 21%DMS 79%
The model gave 79% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 29:41.
Game 2prediction correct6:26
wcyd 21%DMS 79%
The model gave 79% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 19:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 79%
Series resultDMS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2