DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWDWhite Dragonsloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IInvaderswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
White Dragons
Clockwerk
Yor · 2 games
Lion
Hyko · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Yor · 2 games
Tusk
Yor · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Doomoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Yor · 1 game
Invaders
Dark Willow
Kiri · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Bounty Hunter
555k · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
555k · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Alchemist
DaaD- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
274 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
263 picks · 394 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 434 bans
Tusk
222 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
220 picks · 566 bans
Lion
202 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
202 picks · 289 bans
Dark Willow
201 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% White Dragons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Invaders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:37
White Dragons 51%Invaders 49%
The model gave 51% on White Dragons — the game was taken by Invaders in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladehFn
WeaverMnz
Storm SpiritMr.Jeans
MarsChris Luck
WindrangerFCR
Dark SeerSmAsH
Centaur WarrunnerHyko
Shadow Demonsl4d1n-
Vengeful SpiritYor
TuskYadomi
Game 2prediction correct31:43
White Dragons 49%Invaders 51%
The model gave 51% on Invaders — the game was taken by Invaders in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlinghFn
Templar AssassinChris Luck
KunkkaMr.Jeans
RikiMnz
Winter WyvernFCR
MarsSmAsH
EnchantressYor
Windrangersl4d1n-
TuskHyko
Vengeful SpiritYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteInvaders · 52%
Series resultInvaders 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2