?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
White Dragonswin 1:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
South Teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

White Dragons

Tusk
Tusk
Hyko · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Yor · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yor · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
hFn · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Yor · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
hFn · 2 games
50%

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Wij · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MonHty · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
JP · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 425 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
271 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 615 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 205 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
222 picks · 194 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 100 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 299 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% White Dragons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
White Dragons 57%South Team 43%
The model gave 57% on White Dragons — the game was taken by White Dragons in 39:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteWhite Dragons · 57%
Series resultWhite Dragons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1