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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
35%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 21 game
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 19 games
79%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 28 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
ariel · 20 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
510 picks · 546 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 375 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 704 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
308 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 66%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2