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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 23 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
YamSun · 15 games
73%

Estar Backs

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Prada · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 771 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
303 picks · 281 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 172 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
266 picks · 717 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 297 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 738 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:13
Wildcard Gaming 63%Estar Backs 37%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYamSun
49% · 185 games53% · 149 games
Shadow FiendbsK7-
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerRCY
51% · 132 games51% · 245 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
53% · 94 games46% · 203 games
TuskAccel
Tusk
Zeus
ZeusSpeeed
49% · 43 games
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
50% · 143 games
Game 2prediction correct33:38
Wildcard Gaming 61%Estar Backs 39%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 49:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYamSun
51% · 199 games51% · 381 game
BeastmasterbsK7-
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackRCY
55% · 231 game47% · 216 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Mars
MarsFayde
41% · 126 games52% · 141 game
SilencerAccel
Silencer
Enchantress
EnchantressSpeeed
51% · 108 games
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
54% · 74 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 72%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2