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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
goonsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
11%
Techies
Techiessignature
FrancisLee · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
20%

goons

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Giant · 10 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
AfrOmoush · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 5 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Giant · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
567 picks · 609 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
462 picks · 239 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 795 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 699 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
370 picks · 377 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
342 picks · 721 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
342 picks · 834 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 727 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% goons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
Wildcard Gaming 57%goons 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorSunlight
56% · 68 games56% · 43 games
Naga SirenBoris
Naga Siren
Huskar
HuskarRCY
53% · 49 games48% · 127 games
Ember SpiritMTD
Ember Spirit
Clinkz
ClinkzSammyboy
53% · 54 games42% · 105 games
BeastmasterLil_Nick
Beastmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritHusky
49% · 34 games40% · 12 games
Gyrocopterempyrean5
Gyrocopter
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTaiga
55% · 319 games45% · 237 games
RubickGiant
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed26:37
Wildcard Gaming 55%goons 45%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by goons in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawRCY
46% · 133 games61% · 10 games
GyrocopterBoris
Gyrocopter
Sven
SvenSammyboy
43% · 59 games50% · 59 games
VisageLil_Nick
Visage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSunlight
41% · 67 games42% · 48 games
WindrangerMTD
Windranger
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHusky
56% · 21 game57% · 127 games
ClockwerkGiant
Clockwerk
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTaiga
49% · 12 games65% · 48 games
Ioempyrean5
Io
Game 3prediction correct20:10
Wildcard Gaming 56%goons 44%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSammyboy
48% · 147 games54% · 147 games
Naga SirenBoris
Naga Siren
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
49% · 279 games53% · 125 games
Dragon KnightMTD
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordSunlight
54% · 79 games46% · 117 games
VisageLil_Nick
Visage
Lion
LionTaiga
50% · 75 games51% · 246 games
ClockwerkGiant
Clockwerk
Marci
MarciHusky
46% · 155 games49% · 100 games
Phoenixempyrean5
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 68%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3