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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 25 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 22 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
551 picks · 566 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 390 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 522 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
328 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 719 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 605 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 442 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Wildcard Gaming 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 74%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3