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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
M80win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 18 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 7 games
100%

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 28 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 26 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 19 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Elmisho · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
541 picks · 740 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 573 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
494 picks · 616 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
488 picks · 583 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 414 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
451 picks · 986 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
449 picks · 804 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
Wildcard Gaming 50%M80 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by M80 in 52:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFayde
49% · 239 games42% · 148 games
SvenK1
Sven
Magnus
MagnusRCY
56% · 314 games52% · 462 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYamSun
51% · 511 games43% · 233 games
DawnbreakerILICH-
Dawnbreaker
Muerta
MuertaBignum
47% · 312 games50% · 253 games
EnchantressMoOz
Enchantress
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSpeeed
56% · 172 games52% · 452 games
ClockwerkElmisho
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed36:36
Wildcard Gaming 49%M80 51%
The model gave 51% on M80 — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 51:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
50% · 414 games48% · 173 games
Phantom AssassinK1
Phantom Assassin
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYamSun
51% · 75 games44% · 226 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Magnus
MagnusRCY
57% · 329 games54% · 488 games
TinyILICH-
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaBignum
50% · 378 games53% · 458 games
ClockwerkElmisho
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
46% · 559 games48% · 410 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct13:36
Wildcard Gaming 49%M80 51%
The model gave 51% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
45% · 452 games54% · 300 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Lycan
LycanFayde
53% · 102 games44% · 455 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYamSun
45% · 138 games51% · 162 games
DawnbreakerILICH-
Dawnbreaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBignum
49% · 66 games58% · 169 games
Nyx AssassinElmisho
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
46% · 493 games55% · 165 games
PugnaMoOz
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 51%
Series resultM80 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3