Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 10 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 9 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 8 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 8 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Husky · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
ZfreeK · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 449 bans
Mars
488 picks · 693 bans
Bane
453 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
394 picks · 547 bans
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 623 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 71%
Hero pool strength61% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:28
Wildcard Gaming 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:01:04.
Game 2prediction correct32:22
Wildcard Gaming 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:43.
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Wildcard Gaming 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:23.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3