ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RBRed Bullsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 6 games
Magnussignature
Fayde · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
Muerta
Bignum · 4 games
Puckoften banned
RCY · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 3 games
Red Bulls
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 407 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 567 bans
Batrider
420 picks · 524 bans
Lion
412 picks · 223 bans
Gyrocopter
408 picks · 684 bans
Phoenix
402 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
355 picks · 920 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:22
Wildcard Gaming 85%Red Bulls 15%
The model gave 85% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 15:43.
Game 2prediction correct36:8
Wildcard Gaming 85%Red Bulls 15%
The model gave 85% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 17:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 85%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2