?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 3:0
saadboysloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
60%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 3 games
67%

saadboys

Lich
Lich
Ifrit · 3 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
N1NE · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Ifrit · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
100%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
457 picks · 372 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 540 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
378 picks · 479 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 194 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 587 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 397 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 585 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 853 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% saadboys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Wildcard Gaming 70%saadboys 30%
The model gave 70% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRCY
56% · 105 games42% · 30 games
Phantom AssassinCucahook
Phantom Assassin
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYamSun
51% · 29 games50% · 180 games
MuertaN1NE
Muerta
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
58% · 42 games47% · 100 games
Ogre MagiIfrit
Ogre Magi
Undying
UndyingSpeeed
49% · 18 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
47% · 116 games
Game 2prediction correct31:16
Wildcard Gaming 71%saadboys 29%
The model gave 71% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYamSun
54% · 202 games52% · 285 games
GyrocopterCucahook
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckRCY
57% · 82 games44% · 56 games
UndyingIfrit
Undying
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFayde
64% · 10 games44% · 94 games
JakiroN1NE
Jakiro
Chen
ChenSpeeed
51% · 72 games
Techies
TechiesBignum
49% · 69 games
Game 3prediction correct29:5
Wildcard Gaming 72%saadboys 28%
The model gave 72% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 20:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYamSun
50% · 74 games56% · 131 game
BristlebackCucahook
Bristleback
Sniper
SniperRCY
45% · 74 games49% · 95 games
Ogre MagiIfrit
Ogre Magi
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
48% · 32 games47% · 240 games
Dark WillowN1NE
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSpeeed
54% · 143 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
51% · 143 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 85%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3