The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
Tinysignature
The Warden · 18 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
Tiny
StoneBank · 11 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
716 picks · 569 bans
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 660 bans
Puck
496 picks · 1024 bans
Marci
488 picks · 805 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 429 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 160 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 395 bans
Razor
302 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:12
Wildcard Gaming 56%Team DogChamp 44%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 30:42.
Game 2prediction missed43:33
Wildcard Gaming 56%Team DogChamp 44%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 43:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 56%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2