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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 14 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
31%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%

The Cut

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
19%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techiessignature
bgod · 10 games
60%
Bane
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
727 picks · 571 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
504 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
489 picks · 649 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
469 picks · 816 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 419 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 163 bans
48%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 393 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
302 picks · 586 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total77% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:38
Wildcard Gaming 77%The Cut 23%
The model gave 77% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by The Cut in 1:01:15.
Game 2prediction missed39:24
Wildcard Gaming 77%The Cut 23%
The model gave 77% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by The Cut in 37:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 77%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2