Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
5ManMidaswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
Grimstrokeoften banned
yol · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Sword · 2 games
Tusk
Steelborco · 2 games
Warlock
yol · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Sword · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
yol · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 1010 bans
Mars
367 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 357 bans
Lion
339 picks · 179 bans
Void Spirit
337 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Wind and Rain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Wind and Rain 54%5ManMidas 46%
The model gave 54% on Wind and Rain — the game was taken by 5ManMidas.
Model check result
Model favoriteWind and Rain · 54%
Series result5ManMidas 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1