Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
Winline Teamloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ESforcewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winline Team
No games played over 6 months.
ESforce
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 652 bans
Phoenix
496 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 478 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 553 bans
Muerta
422 picks · 362 bans
Magnus
417 picks · 1007 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
Bristleback
388 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Winline Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Winline Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:42
Winline Team 50%ESforce 50%
The model gave 50% on Winline Team — the game was taken by ESforce in 32:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinline Team · 50%
Series resultESforce 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1