DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TSTeam SilverWhispeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winners
Elder Titan
Gaga · 1 game
Lich
Gaga · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Gaga · 1 game
Warlock
Gaga · 1 game
Team SilverWhispe
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 724 bans
Muerta
430 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
428 picks · 703 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
Bristleback
381 picks · 874 bans
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 657 bans
Magnus
379 picks · 1014 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Winners
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team SilverWhispe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winners 46%Team SilverWhispe 54%
The model gave 54% on Team SilverWhispe — the game was taken by Winners.
Game 2prediction correct
Winners 46%Team SilverWhispe 54%
The model gave 54% on Team SilverWhispe — the game was taken by Team SilverWhispe.
Game 3prediction missed
Winners 46%Team SilverWhispe 54%
The model gave 54% on Team SilverWhispe — the game was taken by Winners.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SilverWhispe · 54%
Series resultWinners 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3