Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 8 games
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
365 picks · 759 bans
Void Spirit
341 picks · 453 bans
Mars
290 picks · 513 bans
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 222 bans
Death Prophet
253 picks · 391 bans
Rubick
239 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
226 picks · 477 bans
Wraith King
222 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:29
Winstrike Team 67%B8 Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusadyrachyo
Wraith KingTA2000
Pangolierchshrct
MagnusDendi
Doomre1bl
PuckDuster
Lionyamich
Clockwerk[T]SA
Death ProphetPanto
Game 2prediction missed23:46
Winstrike Team 65%B8 Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 50:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursadyrachyo
BloodseekerTA2000
Kunkkare1bl
Death ProphetDendi
Void Spiritchshrct
GrimstrokeDuster
Keeper of the LightPanto
Earth Spirit[T]SA
Lionyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 76%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2