ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Cascade Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 15 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 975 bans
Lion
372 picks · 198 bans
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
286 picks · 635 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 470 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 64%
Series resultCascade Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed