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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CIS Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Void Spirit
Void Spirit
mellojul · 16 games
56%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
79%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Panto · 12 games
42%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mellojul · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
yamich · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%

CIS Rejects

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
422 picks · 303 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 576 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
321 picks · 376 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
321 picks · 736 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
317 picks · 177 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
249 picks · 439 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
242 picks · 344 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
236 picks · 162 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 80%
Hero pool strength56% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:18
Winstrike Team 28%CIS Rejects 72%
The model gave 72% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 43:36.
Game 2prediction correct7:22
Winstrike Team 28%CIS Rejects 72%
The model gave 72% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 24:01.
Game 3prediction missed36:21
Winstrike Team 28%CIS Rejects 72%
The model gave 72% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 41:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 72%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3