Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:3series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Entitywin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Marssignature
Noticed · 18 games
Jakiro
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Weaversignature
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Bane
forcemajor · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 11 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 9 games
Ursasignature
Daxak · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
466 picks · 274 bans
Mars
388 picks · 534 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 502 bans
Weaver
356 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 475 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 513 bans
Ember Spirit
268 picks · 338 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
Winstrike Team 29%Entity 71%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 30:49.
Game 2prediction correct15:33
Winstrike Team 29%Entity 71%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 46:43.
Game 3prediction correct34:47
Winstrike Team 29%Entity 71%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 56:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 71%
Series resultEntity 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3