Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenix
yamich · 20 games
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
Clockwerk
yamich · 12 games
Lion
yamich · 12 games
Medusaoften banned
dyrachyo · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
chshrct · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Askold · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
416 picks · 168 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 467 bans
Mars
311 picks · 521 bans
Nyx Assassin
300 picks · 618 bans
Puck
297 picks · 724 bans
Snapfire
275 picks · 153 bans
Enchantress
274 picks · 354 bans
Tiny
261 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:34
Winstrike Team 50%Fantastic Five 50%
The model gave 50% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokermellojul
PuckAskold
Faceless VoidEgor
PangolierActor
Death Prophetchshrct
LinajAMES
Nyx Assassinyamich
Hoodwink633
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Game 2prediction correct14:24
Winstrike Team 48%Fantastic Five 52%
The model gave 52% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterEgor
PangolierAskold
Kunkkachshrct
BroodmotherActor
Batridermellojul
Dark WillowjAMES
Hoodwinkyamich
Winter Wyvern633
Elder TitanPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 51%
Series resultFantastic Five 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2