Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gambit Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
Abaddon
Panto · 12 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 11 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 11 games
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 540 bans
Bane
330 picks · 259 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 703 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 758 bans
Tidehunter
248 picks · 387 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:33
Winstrike Team 49%Gambit Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 59:48.
Game 2prediction missed24:15
Winstrike Team 49%Gambit Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 34:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 51%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2