Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 5 games
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 8 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
305 picks · 629 bans
Void Spirit
288 picks · 357 bans
Mars
247 picks · 428 bans
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
204 picks · 107 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 385 bans
Nyx Assassin
195 picks · 605 bans
Phoenix
191 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 75%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:38
Winstrike Team 34%Hellbear Smashers 66%
The model gave 66% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanre1bl
Monkey KingAce
Ursadyrachyo
InvokerStormstormer
Enigmachshrct
VenomancerMISERY
Rubickyamich
UndyingtOfu
DisruptorPanto
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Winstrike Team 35%Hellbear Smashers 65%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanre1bl
BloodseekerAce
Medusadyrachyo
LeshracStormstormer
Timbersawchshrct
Death ProphetMISERY
Shadow Shamanyamich
EarthshakerGilgir
Nyx AssassinPanto
OracletOfu
Game 3prediction correct22:34
Winstrike Team 36%Hellbear Smashers 64%
The model gave 64% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeusre1bl
Arc WardenAce
Medusadyrachyo
Death ProphetStormstormer
Viperchshrct
TidehunterMISERY
Nyx Assassinyamich
LionGilgir
TuskPanto
PudgetOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 73%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3