Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 15 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
376 picks · 971 bans
Lion
371 picks · 204 bans
Mars
362 picks · 587 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
308 picks · 175 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
268 picks · 183 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:10
Winstrike Team 34%HellRaisers 66%
The model gave 66% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 34:55.
Game 2prediction missed24:7
Winstrike Team 34%HellRaisers 66%
The model gave 66% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 24:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 66%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2