Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Lion
yamich · 13 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 10 games
Khan
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Bane
antoha · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Dark Willow
goddam · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
367 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
271 picks · 500 bans
Mars
260 picks · 433 bans
Luna
254 picks · 341 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 337 bans
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 513 bans
Terrorblade
233 picks · 482 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Khan
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
Winstrike Team 60%Khan 40%
The model gave 60% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
Bloodseekerlayme
Puckmellojul
KunkkaDodren
Beastmasterchshrct
Rubickgoddam
Weaveryamich
BatriderpJonn
DawnbreakerPanto
Baneantoha
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Winstrike Team 60%Khan 40%
The model gave 60% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Slarklayme
Ember Spiritmellojul
BeastmasterpJonn
Tidehunterchshrct
Shadow FiendDodren
Monkey Kingyamich
Miranagoddam
BanePanto
Marsantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 67%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2