Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 7 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 6 games
Earthshaker
yamich · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
dyrachyo · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
chshrct · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 3 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
274 picks · 554 bans
Void Spirit
246 picks · 312 bans
Mars
218 picks · 397 bans
Earth Spirit
206 picks · 163 bans
Nyx Assassin
178 picks · 555 bans
Keeper of the Light
176 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
174 picks · 202 bans
Wraith King
173 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 72%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
Winstrike Team 37%PuckChamp 63%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 28:27.
Game 2prediction correct47:36
Winstrike Team 37%PuckChamp 63%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:06:13.
Game 3prediction correct9:31
Winstrike Team 37%PuckChamp 63%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:44.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 63%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3