ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SESMARACIS eSportloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 15 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
SMARACIS eSport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
Lion
373 picks · 198 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
287 picks · 637 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 58%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect