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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
yamich · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 12 games
25%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
chshrct · 10 games
60%

Spider Pigzs

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 15 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mitch · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 12 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 10 games
70%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 172 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 530 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 476 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 177 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 770 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
300 picks · 630 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 226 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
279 picks · 358 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
Winstrike Team 54%Spider Pigzs 46%
The model gave 54% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerEgor
60% · 101 game45% · 95 games
Terrorbladelightless
Terrorblade
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
53% · 172 games35% · 140 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
63% · 4 games49% · 103 games
PangolierFunn1k
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanto
52% · 91 game40% · 123 games
EnchantressLeBronDota
Enchantress
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinchshrct
58% · 205 games52% · 112 games
ClockwerkMitch
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Winstrike Team 51%Spider Pigzs 49%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
50% · 113 games59% · 73 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Lina
LinaEgor
54% · 120 games46% · 128 games
Void Spiritlightless
Void Spirit
Axe
Axechshrct
47% · 128 games53% · 146 games
Nyx AssassinFunn1k
Nyx Assassin
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
42% · 236 games49% · 206 games
LionMitch
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
57% · 63 games46% · 107 games
AbaddonLeBronDota
Abaddon
Game 3prediction missed18:18
Winstrike Team 54%Spider Pigzs 46%
The model gave 54% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEgor
48% · 94 games52% · 77 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
51% · 52 games51% · 91 game
Viperlightless
Viper
Mars
Marschshrct
48% · 165 games45% · 37 games
Night StalkerFunn1k
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
64% · 50 games52% · 115 games
ClockwerkMitch
Clockwerk
Oracle
OraclePanto
50% · 80 games42% · 121 game
AbaddonLeBronDota
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 55%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3