Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenix
yamich · 18 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 12 games
Lion
yamich · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 10 games
Marssignature
laise · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 4 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
456 picks · 180 bans
Snapfire
357 picks · 200 bans
Mars
346 picks · 554 bans
Puck
329 picks · 821 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 478 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
303 picks · 241 bans
Enchantress
288 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
Winstrike Team 44%V-Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 46:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenxannii
Drow RangerTA2000
InvokerEgor
ViperhAze
Dragon KnightpJonn
Dark WillowArrOw
Nyx Assassinyamich
Beastmasterlaise
Ancient ApparitionPanto
AbaddonMalady
Game 2prediction correct11:27
Winstrike Team 43%V-Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 25:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunaxannii
MedusaTA2000
Miranayamich
LinahAze
InvokerEgor
Timbersawlaise
Dragon KnightpJonn
LionArrOw
ClockwerkPanto
Treant ProtectorMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 64%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2