Winstrike Team vs V-Gaming — prediction DPC2—ВЕ · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1

result vs prediction

Winstrike Teamwin 1:0

series probability

44%56%

probability at match start · final 1:0

V-Gamingloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Void Spirit

mellojul · 18 games

56%

Weaversignature

yamich · 17 games

76%

Marssignature

chshrct · 15 games

67%

Sand Kingsignature

mellojul · 14 games

79%

Ogre Magi

Panto · 12 games

58%

Abaddon

Panto · 11 games

45%

Miranasignature

yamich · 11 games

82%

Monkey Kingsignature

yamich · 11 games

64%

V-Gaming

Linaoften banned

hAze · 37 games

59%

Lionsignature

ArrOw · 29 games

66%

Treant Protectorsignature

Malady · 27 games

70%

Weaveroften banned

ArrOw · 27 games

59%

Invokeroften banned

hAze · 26 games

58%

Shadow Demonsignature

ArrOw · 26 games

65%

Queen of Painoften banned

hAze · 24 games

50%

Disruptorsignature

Malady · 23 games

61%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

493 picks · 352 bans

57%

Mars

444 picks · 647 bans

50%

Queen of Pain

382 picks · 476 bans

51%

Weaver

381 picks · 829 bans

56%

Snapfire

369 picks · 192 bans

46%

Kunkka

298 picks · 501 bans

54%

Spirit Breaker

286 picks · 451 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

262 picks · 352 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%

Hero pool strength50% Winstrike Team

Head-to-head3 – 2

Model total56% V-Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed29:8

Winstrike Team 47%V-Gaming 53%

The model gave 53% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 21:54.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo