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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Mars
Marssignature
Noticed · 18 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
SoNNeikO · 15 games
53%
Weaver
Weaversignature
SoNNeikO · 15 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Bane
Bane
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 10 games
70%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Daxak · 9 games
78%

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
46%
Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Io
Iosignature
1ls · 9 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 9 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
78%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 274 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 529 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 501 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 472 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 470 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
286 picks · 509 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
267 picks · 331 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 188 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:8
Winstrike Team 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
55% · 59 games46% · 191 game
Ember SpiritPure~
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
54% · 140 games45% · 26 games
PugnagpK~
Pugna
Sand King
Sand KingNoticed
50% · 142 games45% · 211 games
TidehunterDM
Tidehunter
Bane
BaneSoNNeikO
54% · 278 games54% · 14 games
Rikiyamich
Riki
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageforcemajor
53% · 49 games50% · 226 games
GrimstrokeXakoda
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed37:24
Winstrike Team 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLarl
51% · 239 games47% · 186 games
InvokergpK~
Invoker
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightDaxak
46% · 40 games52% · 207 games
Ember SpiritPure~
Ember Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNoticed
57% · 139 games42% · 189 games
Dragon KnightDM
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand Kingforcemajor
58% · 137 games47% · 104 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSoNNeikO
52% · 141 game44% · 10 games
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2