ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DuClownsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
DuClowns
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 376 bans
Grimstroke
175 picks · 156 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 69 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 237 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:2
Winter Bear 63%DuClowns 37%
The model gave 63% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 19:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 63%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1