DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ffirebirdwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
firebird
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 699 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 234 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
247 picks · 250 bans
Marci
244 picks · 618 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 103 bans
Pugna
242 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% firebird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winter Bear 67%firebird 33%
The model gave 67% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by firebird.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 67%
Series resultfirebird 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1