Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gamax Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 9 games
Lionsignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Gamax Esports
Hoodwink
Nagato · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Clockwerk
Nagato · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
Mars
342 picks · 515 bans
Techies
327 picks · 256 bans
Batrider
317 picks · 623 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
297 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Winter Bear
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
Winter Bear 72%Gamax Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:39.
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Winter Bear 72%Gamax Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 21:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 72%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2