European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 12 games
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
Marcisignature
waveformn · 9 games
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
Tinysignature
waveformn · 9 games
Batridersignature
fortniteMan · 8 games
Ilbirs eSports
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 4 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
626 picks · 812 bans
Tiny
553 picks · 574 bans
Tusk
450 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
447 picks · 294 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1044 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 680 bans
Mars
378 picks · 595 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength66% Winter Bear
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:18
Winter Bear 52%Ilbirs eSports 48%
The model gave 52% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonpaw
Beastmasterniche
HuskarPanda
Weaverrubikon155
BatriderfortniteMan
TimbersawMiyaoo
Tinywaveformn
ClockwerkUndyne_
DazzleDelight
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Winter Bear 52%Ilbirs eSports 48%
The model gave 52% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapaw
Shadow Fiendrubikon155
BeastmasterPanda
Storm Spiritniche
RazorfortniteMan
TidehunterMiyaoo
Tinywaveformn
JakiroUndyne_
PhoenixDelight
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 50%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2