DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBKodiak Bearsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Kodiak Bears
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
405 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 388 bans
Lion
353 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 432 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 803 bans
Phoenix
328 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Kodiak Bears
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
Winter Bear 57%Kodiak Bears 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:57.
Game 3prediction correct33:22
Winter Bear 57%Kodiak Bears 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 57%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2