European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBLesnaya Bratvaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Lion
Delight · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Lesnaya Bratva
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 401 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 515 bans
Lion
405 picks · 216 bans
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 661 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 440 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 590 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 911 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Lesnaya Bratva
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Lesnaya Bratva
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:31
Winter Bear 48%Lesnaya Bratva 52%
The model gave 52% on Lesnaya Bratva — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:34.
Game 2prediction correct10:39
Winter Bear 48%Lesnaya Bratva 52%
The model gave 52% on Lesnaya Bratva — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 28:57.
Game 3prediction missed14:36
Winter Bear 48%Lesnaya Bratva 52%
The model gave 52% on Lesnaya Bratva — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteLesnaya Bratva · 52%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3