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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 13 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
fortniteMan · 8 games
63%

Level UP

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gilgir · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Gilgir · 5 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nikobaby · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 817 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 549 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 395 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 295 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1019 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 658 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 519 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 40%
Hero pool strength70% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winter Bear 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction missed
Winter Bear 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Level UP.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 57%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2