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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 12 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 11 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
fortniteMan · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Panda · 9 games
44%

Level UP

Tusk
Tusk
lupsione · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 7 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 5 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
chempik · 5 games
20%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gilgir · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
686 picks · 853 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
593 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 427 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
492 picks · 337 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 1118 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 702 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 633 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 35%
Hero pool strength66% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:32
Winter Bear 52%Level UP 48%
The model gave 52% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Level UP in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPanda
44% · 320 games52% · 172 games
Monkey Kingchempik
Monkey King
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpaw
53% · 63 games47% · 295 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Night Stalker
Night StalkerfortniteMan
53% · 53 games59% · 34 games
Venomancermonodrama
Venomancer
Batrider
BatriderDelight
52% · 208 games53% · 282 games
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
Muerta
Muertawaveformn
44% · 139 games
Game 2prediction correct42:29
Winter Bear 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracPanda
54% · 128 games52% · 139 games
Morphlingchempik
Morphling
Weaver
Weaverpaw
48% · 111 games42% · 286 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
51% · 296 games62% · 20 games
Lichmonodrama
Lich
Marci
Marciwaveformn
52% · 184 games49% · 561 game
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDelight
51% · 287 games
Game 3prediction correct32:24
Winter Bear 52%Level UP 48%
The model gave 52% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapaw
47% · 47 games54% · 158 games
Windrangerchempik
Windranger
Viper
ViperPanda
50% · 59 games41% · 52 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
54% · 195 games49% · 117 games
Phoenixmonodrama
Phoenix
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerwaveformn
44% · 22 games58% · 11 games
Oraclelupsione
Oracle
Venomancer
VenomancerDelight
49% · 15 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 54%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3