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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 10 games
20%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Stoic · 4 games
75%

Nemiga Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 21 game
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 609 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 383 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 466 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
359 picks · 148 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 575 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 439 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 667 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:54
Winter Bear 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEthereal
59% · 23 games52% · 129 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Leshrac
Leshracpio65
50% · 178 games47% · 181 game
RazorLukas
Razor
Slardar
SlardarInfernal
54% · 79 games54% · 126 games
EnigmaMikSa`
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixStoic
53% · 171 game43% · 214 games
Batriderjesv
Batrider
Rubick
RubickArrOw
48% · 328 games46% · 129 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct26:41
Winter Bear 32%Nemiga Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpio65
54% · 166 games64% · 76 games
Chaos KnightLukas
Chaos Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEthereal
48% · 108 games48% · 160 games
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
53% · 105 games48% · 70 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkArrOw
46% · 142 games53% · 223 games
Dark Willowjesv
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixStoic
37% · 191 game51% · 183 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 80%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2