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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 13 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 11 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 10 games
90%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
78%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
27%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
11%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VaniLLl · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 815 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 581 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
456 picks · 402 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
451 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
406 picks · 1049 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 682 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 602 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
364 picks · 965 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength66% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:47
Winter Bear 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:01:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpaw
50% · 227 games54% · 200 games
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPanda
52% · 414 games48% · 109 games
Razoryoung G
Razor
Viper
ViperfortniteMan
51% · 130 games49% · 188 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinwaveformn
46% · 104 games49% · 375 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
50% · 276 games52% · 279 games
RingmasterVaniLLl
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct18:47
Winter Bear 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpaw
56% · 329 games53% · 335 games
Shadow Fiendyoung G
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerPanda
54% · 154 games47% · 185 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Razor
RazorfortniteMan
50% · 149 games46% · 271 game
PhoenixCovisnine
Phoenix
Tiny
Tinywaveformn
52% · 492 games47% · 368 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroDelight
50% · 614 games46% · 579 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2