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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 16 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
waveformn · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 11 games
82%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
31%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
young G · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
677 picks · 856 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 601 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 429 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
487 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 1120 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 699 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 626 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:26
Winter Bear 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPanda
44% · 277 games56% · 178 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Alchemist
Alchemistpaw
54% · 36 games44% · 280 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderfortniteMan
51% · 397 games58% · 348 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
48% · 725 games50% · 549 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
50% · 295 games47% · 375 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct11:26
Winter Bear 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapaw
43% · 107 games45% · 275 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Huskar
HuskarPanda
45% · 89 games62% · 122 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Axe
AxefortniteMan
46% · 221 game52% · 198 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkwaveformn
57% · 334 games42% · 117 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleDelight
51% · 161 game56% · 200 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2